Navigating in uncertainty isn't fun. Yes, there are people and philosophies that encourage you to "embrace the unknown," find a way to "profit off of disruption" and "see opportunity where others don't." This isn't one of those articles.
It is possible to profit in uncertain times. Fortunes have certainly been made, but even more have been lost. So, I'm going to walk you through some steps to put a little order around the chaos uncertainty brings and hopefully keep you on track to achieve whatever goals you've set.
First, take comfort in history. Whether it's COVID-19, a financial crisis, a dot-com bust or (showing my age) stagflation, hundreds of millions of people have faced challenging times and gotten through them. You can, too. No matter the circumstances, there are actionable principles you can follow that will put you on reasonably solid footing when you plan.
The overarching principle to keep in mind is cash preservation. Whatever you decide to do, know how your actions will affect your cash balance. Think of cash as the fuel of your business. If you run out of gas, your car stops. You can get more gas, but it can be very inconvenient and costly to get gas in a remote area. So, make sure you plan and prepare so you don't run out of cash.
Trying to predict the future or the long-term impact of current events isn't easy. The odds of your getting it correct and coming up with a perfect plan are low. However, with a basic framework, you can apply your insight and capability to make smart decisions now. Ask yourself the following questions:
For example, if the global supply chain is in disarray, then any of my customers who rely on a global supply chain to create their products might be faced with fulfillment disruptions and higher costs. Remember, your observations are what made you a great businessperson.
You know how to connect with customers or you wouldn't be in business. Look at your observations and ask yourself the following:
You don't need to read this article to know that the best use of your time and resources is going to be anything that makes you more essential to your customers. Let's walk through navigating short- and long-term investments and the planning that goes into each.
From a short-term perspective, think in terms of 90-day chunks. This type of planning revolves mainly around a few items:
The process to kick off your long-term planning should be the same as the short-term: Ask yourself what you think the world would be like after 90 days to one or two years from now. What is different from what you have already answered in the new now? What do you need to do to be essential to your customers in the future? My bias is to stay customer-focused on long-term planning.
With that lens in mind, look at the following elements of your long-term plan:
No one has a crystal ball that can tell you the exact moves to make even when times are certain and uneventful. By basing your decisions off clear, tested assumptions with a customer-focused lens, whatever plans and investments you make will have a larger chance of success than if you were to only use a gut feel or take a desperate shot in the dark.